565 
WTNT80 EGRR 031602

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 03.07.2021

             HURRICANE ELSA       ANALYSED POSITION : 16.8N  70.3W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052021

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 03.07.2021  16.8N  70.3W     WEAK
 00UTC 04.07.2021  18.2N  74.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.07.2021  20.2N  76.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 05.07.2021        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  42 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 45.2N  31.8E

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 05.07.2021  45.2N  31.4E   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 06.07.2021  44.2N  30.2E   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.07.2021  42.8N  29.3E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 07.07.2021        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  78 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 25.0N  84.0W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 07.07.2021  25.8N  84.1W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 07.07.2021  28.1N  84.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 08.07.2021  30.0N  83.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 08.07.2021  32.5N  82.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.07.2021  34.7N  79.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 09.07.2021  37.8N  74.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 031602