542 
WTNT80 EGRR 030359

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 03.07.2021

             HURRICANE ELSA       ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N  65.2W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052021

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 03.07.2021  14.8N  65.2W     WEAK
 12UTC 03.07.2021  17.0N  70.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 04.07.2021  18.7N  73.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.07.2021        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  78 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 45.3N  35.0E

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 06.07.2021  45.0N  33.5E   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 07.07.2021  43.8N  32.1E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 07.07.2021  42.4N  29.5E     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 08.07.2021        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 29.4N  80.2W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 07.07.2021  30.2N  80.1W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 08.07.2021  32.5N  79.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 08.07.2021  34.7N  77.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.07.2021  36.9N  73.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 030359