535 
WTNT80 EGRR 020358

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 02.10.2020

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L        ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N  83.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912020

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 02.10.2020  16.6N  83.9W     WEAK
 12UTC 02.10.2020        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             HURRICANE MARIE      ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 121.7W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182020

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 02.10.2020  15.3N 121.7W   INTENSE
 12UTC 02.10.2020  16.1N 124.0W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 03.10.2020  17.2N 125.9W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 03.10.2020  18.4N 127.1W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 04.10.2020  19.7N 128.2W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.10.2020  20.6N 129.2W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 05.10.2020  21.1N 130.6W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 05.10.2020  21.4N 132.1W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 06.10.2020  22.0N 133.8W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 06.10.2020  22.4N 135.4W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 07.10.2020  23.0N 136.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 07.10.2020  24.1N 137.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 08.10.2020  24.5N 137.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  24 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 18.6N  86.7W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 03.10.2020  18.6N  86.7W     WEAK
 12UTC 03.10.2020  19.3N  87.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 04.10.2020  19.8N  88.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.10.2020        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  66 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 12.6N 105.7W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 05.10.2020  13.5N 106.2W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 05.10.2020  15.0N 107.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 06.10.2020  15.6N 108.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.10.2020  15.9N 108.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 07.10.2020  15.9N 108.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 07.10.2020  15.9N 108.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 08.10.2020  16.1N 108.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  84 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 36.0N  70.3W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 05.10.2020  36.0N  70.3W     WEAK
 00UTC 06.10.2020  39.2N  59.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 06.10.2020  40.4N  52.7W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 07.10.2020  40.7N  44.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 07.10.2020        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 020358