656 WTNT80 EGRR 151600 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 15.09.2020 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 8.6N 20.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982020 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.09.2020 8.6N 20.3W WEAK 00UTC 16.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM KARINA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.0N 121.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162020 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.09.2020 20.0N 121.1W MODERATE 00UTC 16.09.2020 21.3N 122.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2020 22.4N 124.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2020 23.3N 125.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2020 24.1N 127.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2020 24.0N 128.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2020 23.5N 129.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE PAULETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 37.3N 59.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172020 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.09.2020 37.3N 59.7W INTENSE 00UTC 16.09.2020 39.7N 54.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2020 42.3N 47.3W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 17.09.2020 44.5N 40.1W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 17.09.2020 45.7N 35.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2020 44.5N 34.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2020 41.7N 34.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2020 39.4N 34.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2020 37.7N 35.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2020 36.4N 36.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2020 35.7N 37.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2020 34.9N 38.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2020 33.9N 39.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE SALLY ANALYSED POSITION : 29.1N 88.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL192020 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.09.2020 29.1N 88.1W STRONG 00UTC 16.09.2020 29.6N 87.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2020 30.2N 87.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2020 30.8N 86.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 17.09.2020 31.4N 85.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2020 32.5N 82.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2020 32.2N 81.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2020 32.5N 79.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM VICKY ANALYSED POSITION : 20.3N 30.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL212020 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.09.2020 20.3N 30.7W WEAK 00UTC 16.09.2020 20.9N 32.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2020 21.1N 34.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2020 21.3N 36.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2020 21.4N 38.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2020 20.9N 40.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2020 20.4N 41.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM TEDDY ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 46.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL202020 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.09.2020 13.9N 46.7W MODERATE 00UTC 16.09.2020 14.7N 47.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2020 16.1N 48.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2020 17.5N 49.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2020 19.0N 51.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2020 20.3N 52.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2020 21.4N 53.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2020 22.9N 54.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2020 24.3N 56.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2020 25.8N 58.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2020 27.3N 59.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2020 29.0N 61.1W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2020 31.2N 61.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 33.0N 15.0E VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.09.2020 33.0N 15.0E WEAK 00UTC 16.09.2020 33.0N 16.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2020 34.0N 17.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2020 35.2N 19.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2020 36.6N 20.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2020 37.7N 23.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2020 39.0N 23.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2020 36.1N 21.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2020 35.3N 22.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2020 34.0N 23.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2020 33.1N 25.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 9.8N 151.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.09.2020 9.8N 151.5W WEAK 00UTC 17.09.2020 10.6N 153.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2020 11.4N 156.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2020 12.0N 158.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2020 12.5N 161.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2020 13.1N 164.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 21.0N 93.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.09.2020 21.0N 93.8W WEAK 12UTC 20.09.2020 20.8N 95.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2020 21.6N 95.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2020 22.5N 97.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 151600