253 WTNT80 EGRR 111603 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 11.08.2020 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.0N 38.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952020 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.08.2020 12.0N 38.0W WEAK 00UTC 12.08.2020 12.6N 41.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.08.2020 13.0N 43.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.08.2020 13.2N 45.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.08.2020 14.1N 48.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.08.2020 15.3N 50.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.08.2020 16.4N 52.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.08.2020 17.1N 54.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE ELIDA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.0N 113.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092020 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.08.2020 21.0N 113.9W STRONG 00UTC 12.08.2020 22.2N 116.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.08.2020 23.1N 119.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.08.2020 24.1N 120.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.08.2020 25.0N 121.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.08.2020 26.2N 122.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 13.4N 128.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.08.2020 13.6N 129.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.08.2020 13.8N 130.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.08.2020 13.9N 132.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.08.2020 13.8N 133.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.08.2020 13.3N 134.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.08.2020 12.5N 135.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.08.2020 12.5N 135.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2020 12.6N 135.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2020 13.1N 135.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2020 13.8N 135.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.4N 140.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.08.2020 12.4N 140.9W WEAK 00UTC 14.08.2020 13.3N 142.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.08.2020 13.5N 144.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.08.2020 13.9N 147.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.08.2020 14.1N 149.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.08.2020 14.2N 151.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2020 13.9N 153.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2020 13.7N 156.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2020 13.3N 158.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 15.0N 118.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.08.2020 15.5N 120.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 15.08.2020 15.9N 122.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.08.2020 16.9N 124.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2020 17.6N 125.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2020 18.4N 126.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2020 19.2N 127.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 11.2N 160.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.08.2020 11.5N 161.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.08.2020 11.7N 162.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2020 11.9N 163.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2020 11.5N 165.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 11.9N 175.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.08.2020 12.2N 175.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.08.2020 13.1N 176.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2020 13.8N 178.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 13.0N 94.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.08.2020 13.0N 94.7W WEAK 00UTC 17.08.2020 14.1N 96.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.08.2020 15.7N 97.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 11.5N 110.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.08.2020 12.2N 111.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 111603