059 WTNT80 EGRR 101605 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 10.08.2020 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.6N 32.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952020 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.08.2020 11.6N 32.7W WEAK 00UTC 11.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ELIDA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.5N 109.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP092020 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.08.2020 18.5N 109.5W MODERATE 00UTC 11.08.2020 19.7N 112.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.08.2020 20.8N 114.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.08.2020 22.0N 117.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.08.2020 22.9N 119.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.08.2020 23.6N 121.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.08.2020 24.0N 122.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.08.2020 24.5N 123.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 12.4N 129.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.08.2020 12.4N 129.1W WEAK 12UTC 12.08.2020 12.8N 130.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.08.2020 14.2N 131.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.08.2020 14.7N 134.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.08.2020 15.3N 136.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.08.2020 15.6N 138.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.08.2020 15.6N 140.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.08.2020 15.4N 141.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.08.2020 15.5N 142.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2020 15.6N 143.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.8N 41.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.08.2020 12.8N 41.5W WEAK 00UTC 13.08.2020 13.0N 43.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.08.2020 13.9N 45.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 15.5N 119.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.08.2020 15.5N 121.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 15.08.2020 16.3N 123.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.08.2020 17.8N 125.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2020 19.8N 126.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 11.5N 150.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.08.2020 11.5N 151.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.08.2020 11.5N 152.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 12.2N 107.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.08.2020 12.2N 107.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.08.2020 11.9N 109.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 11.3N 174.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.08.2020 11.3N 174.4W WEAK 12UTC 16.08.2020 12.4N 175.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 12.5N 166.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.08.2020 12.5N 166.4W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 101605