391 
WTNT80 EGRR 171557

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 17.11.2019

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION RAYMOND    ANALYSED POSITION : 18.5N 111.4W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 17.11.2019  18.5N 111.4W     WEAK
 00UTC 18.11.2019  21.0N 110.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 18.11.2019  23.8N 112.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 19.11.2019        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21E        ANALYSED POSITION : 10.5N 102.5W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 17.11.2019  10.5N 102.5W     WEAK
 00UTC 18.11.2019  11.0N 104.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 18.11.2019  11.3N 104.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 19.11.2019        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

    TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 31.3N  75.0W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 17.11.2019  31.3N  75.0W   MODERATE
 00UTC 18.11.2019  31.7N  72.4W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 18.11.2019  37.2N  70.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 19.11.2019  40.8N  68.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 19.11.2019  44.7N  65.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 20.11.2019  48.6N  60.7W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 20.11.2019  50.5N  60.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 21.11.2019        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  54 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 33.6N  73.3W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 20.11.2019  34.7N  71.3W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 20.11.2019  39.4N  66.1W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 21.11.2019  44.5N  60.2W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 21.11.2019  47.2N  59.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 22.11.2019  47.3N  59.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 22.11.2019        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  90 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 24.4N  60.8W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 21.11.2019  24.8N  60.0W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 22.11.2019  25.0N  58.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 22.11.2019  24.4N  57.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 23.11.2019  24.2N  57.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 23.11.2019  24.0N  58.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 171557