000 WTNT80 EGRR 010356 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 01.10.2019 HURRICANE LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 31.3N 41.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.10.2019 31.3N 41.9W INTENSE 12UTC 01.10.2019 34.0N 39.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2019 37.2N 34.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2019 41.9N 28.8W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2019 48.2N 20.6W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 03.10.2019 53.8N 17.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 04.10.2019 POST-TROPICAL TROPICAL STORM NARDA ANALYSED POSITION : 27.4N 110.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.10.2019 27.4N 110.0W WEAK 12UTC 01.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 13.2N 141.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.10.2019 13.2N 141.6W WEAK 12UTC 02.10.2019 13.9N 140.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2019 14.7N 140.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2019 15.0N 140.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2019 15.4N 141.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2019 15.2N 142.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2019 15.1N 143.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2019 15.5N 143.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2019 16.5N 143.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2019 17.7N 143.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2019 18.6N 143.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 36.9N 18.5E VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.10.2019 36.9N 18.5E WEAK 12UTC 04.10.2019 38.7N 23.2E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2019 43.4N 33.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 16.4N 128.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 06.10.2019 17.1N 129.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 06.10.2019 18.0N 130.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2019 18.9N 131.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 010356