879 WTNT80 EGRR 301555 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 30.09.2019 HURRICANE LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 29.2N 43.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 30.09.2019 29.2N 43.1W INTENSE 00UTC 01.10.2019 31.3N 41.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.10.2019 34.0N 39.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2019 37.3N 34.7W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.10.2019 42.0N 28.6W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2019 48.2N 20.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 03.10.2019 53.1N 16.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 04.10.2019 54.0N 10.4W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 04.10.2019 51.7N 3.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 05.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM NARDA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.8N 105.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 30.09.2019 21.8N 105.6W WEAK 00UTC 01.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 12.8N 141.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.10.2019 12.8N 141.6W WEAK 00UTC 02.10.2019 13.3N 141.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2019 14.3N 140.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2019 15.1N 140.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2019 15.3N 140.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2019 15.6N 141.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2019 15.5N 142.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2019 15.5N 143.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2019 15.7N 144.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2019 16.3N 144.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2019 17.0N 144.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 14.8N 128.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.10.2019 14.8N 128.3W WEAK 00UTC 02.10.2019 15.2N 126.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2019 15.1N 126.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2019 15.0N 126.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2019 14.8N 126.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2019 14.7N 127.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2019 14.5N 127.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2019 14.8N 128.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2019 15.0N 128.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2019 15.2N 129.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2019 15.5N 130.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 37.3N 19.3E VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.10.2019 37.3N 19.3E WEAK 12UTC 04.10.2019 41.9N 25.7E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2019 44.4N 30.4E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2019 47.5N 34.2E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2019 52.0N 36.7E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2019 55.0N 39.8E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 36.1N 45.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.10.2019 37.0N 41.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 301555