624 WTNT80 EGRR 280358 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 28.09.2019 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 29.6N 58.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.09.2019 29.6N 58.0W WEAK 12UTC 28.09.2019 30.3N 58.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2019 30.7N 59.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2019 31.7N 61.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2019 32.6N 62.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 97.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP942019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.09.2019 14.3N 97.5W WEAK 12UTC 28.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 20.3N 44.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.09.2019 20.3N 44.1W INTENSE 12UTC 28.09.2019 21.7N 44.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2019 23.5N 44.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2019 24.9N 43.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2019 26.4N 43.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2019 27.8N 42.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 01.10.2019 29.2N 41.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.10.2019 31.0N 40.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2019 33.1N 37.2W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.10.2019 36.0N 32.9W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2019 39.4N 27.7W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 03.10.2019 42.8N 22.0W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 04.10.2019 46.0N 14.5W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 16.4N 101.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 29.09.2019 16.9N 102.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 30.09.2019 18.6N 104.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2019 21.5N 106.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2019 23.2N 109.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.10.2019 24.1N 109.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2019 26.7N 110.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 11.8N 141.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 30.09.2019 12.0N 140.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.10.2019 13.0N 140.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2019 14.0N 140.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2019 15.6N 138.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.10.2019 16.6N 138.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2019 17.2N 137.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2019 17.2N 137.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.10.2019 16.8N 138.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 15.4N 127.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.10.2019 14.9N 127.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2019 13.9N 126.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2019 12.9N 125.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2019 12.2N 125.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2019 11.7N 125.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2019 11.9N 125.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 11.1N 150.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.10.2019 11.1N 150.9W WEAK 12UTC 02.10.2019 11.7N 150.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2019 12.4N 150.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2019 13.2N 151.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2019 13.7N 153.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 12.8N 119.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.10.2019 12.8N 119.9W WEAK 12UTC 02.10.2019 11.9N 119.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2019 11.5N 118.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2019 11.6N 118.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2019 12.4N 118.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 280358