017 WTNT80 EGRR 271558 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 27.09.2019 TROPICAL STORM 93E ANALYSED POSITION : 18.3N 106.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP932019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 27.09.2019 18.3N 106.1W WEAK 00UTC 28.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 28.6N 60.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 27.09.2019 28.6N 60.0W WEAK 00UTC 28.09.2019 29.4N 58.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2019 30.2N 58.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2019 30.8N 59.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 18.8N 42.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 27.09.2019 18.8N 42.4W STRONG 00UTC 28.09.2019 20.6N 43.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.09.2019 22.2N 43.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2019 24.0N 43.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2019 25.7N 42.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.09.2019 27.5N 41.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 30.09.2019 29.2N 40.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2019 31.1N 39.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.10.2019 33.9N 36.9W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2019 37.3N 32.5W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 02.10.2019 42.4N 26.7W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 03.10.2019 48.5N 22.1W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.10.2019 51.6N 16.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 15.7N 99.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.09.2019 16.5N 100.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 29.09.2019 17.5N 104.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2019 18.6N 105.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2019 22.7N 107.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2019 24.4N 109.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.10.2019 25.3N 110.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2019 27.5N 110.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 11.8N 141.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 30.09.2019 11.8N 141.3W WEAK 12UTC 30.09.2019 12.4N 141.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2019 13.2N 140.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2019 13.5N 140.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2019 14.8N 139.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.10.2019 16.0N 138.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2019 16.9N 138.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2019 17.3N 138.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 14.7N 123.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.10.2019 14.7N 123.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2019 13.9N 121.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2019 13.0N 121.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2019 12.3N 120.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2019 12.0N 120.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2019 11.9N 120.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 10.6N 153.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.10.2019 10.6N 153.6W WEAK 12UTC 02.10.2019 11.0N 153.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2019 11.7N 154.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2019 12.3N 155.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 12.3N 126.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.10.2019 11.9N 126.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2019 11.1N 127.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2019 10.3N 127.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 32.3N 12.9E VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.10.2019 32.5N 14.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 271558