057 WTNT80 EGRR 261558 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 26.09.2019 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93E ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 111.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP932019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.09.2019 16.1N 111.1W WEAK 00UTC 27.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 26.0N 64.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.09.2019 26.0N 64.2W WEAK 00UTC 27.09.2019 27.5N 62.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2019 28.2N 60.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2019 28.4N 59.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2019 28.4N 60.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2019 28.5N 61.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2019 28.4N 63.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2019 28.6N 64.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2019 28.9N 65.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2019 28.9N 65.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2019 29.1N 65.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2019 28.9N 65.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2019 28.4N 65.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N 39.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.09.2019 15.1N 39.6W STRONG 00UTC 27.09.2019 17.2N 40.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2019 19.2N 41.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 28.09.2019 21.5N 41.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2019 23.7N 41.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.09.2019 25.6N 41.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2019 27.0N 39.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 30.09.2019 28.6N 38.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.09.2019 30.2N 37.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.10.2019 32.1N 36.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.10.2019 34.5N 33.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2019 38.0N 29.8W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 02.10.2019 42.4N 24.8W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 33.2N 62.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.09.2019 33.2N 62.8W WEAK 00UTC 27.09.2019 34.6N 61.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2019 34.9N 60.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 14.8N 99.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.09.2019 15.8N 100.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 29.09.2019 17.2N 103.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.09.2019 19.7N 105.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2019 23.3N 106.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 12.1N 141.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 30.09.2019 12.1N 141.4W WEAK 12UTC 30.09.2019 12.9N 139.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2019 13.9N 139.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2019 15.0N 138.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2019 15.8N 137.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.10.2019 16.4N 137.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 14.9N 124.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.10.2019 14.4N 124.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 02.10.2019 13.3N 124.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 261558