000 WTNT80 EGRR 251557 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 25.09.2019 TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVES ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 111.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP932019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.09.2019 13.3N 111.9W WEAK 00UTC 26.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 31.9N 67.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.09.2019 31.9N 67.4W WEAK 00UTC 26.09.2019 32.2N 65.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2019 32.7N 63.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2019 33.6N 62.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 21.6N 65.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.09.2019 21.6N 65.0W WEAK 00UTC 26.09.2019 23.9N 64.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2019 26.2N 63.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2019 27.9N 61.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2019 28.5N 59.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2019 29.5N 58.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2019 30.1N 59.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2019 29.7N 61.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 19.1N 141.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.09.2019 19.1N 141.8W WEAK 00UTC 26.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 34.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.09.2019 13.9N 34.5W MODERATE 00UTC 26.09.2019 14.3N 37.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.09.2019 15.1N 39.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.09.2019 16.7N 40.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2019 18.9N 40.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 28.09.2019 21.2N 41.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.09.2019 22.8N 41.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2019 24.4N 41.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2019 26.2N 40.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.09.2019 28.0N 39.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2019 29.9N 37.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2019 32.3N 36.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 01.10.2019 35.8N 33.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 11.9N 141.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 29.09.2019 11.9N 141.6W WEAK 00UTC 30.09.2019 12.3N 140.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2019 13.0N 139.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2019 14.1N 138.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2019 14.8N 138.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 15.0N 126.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.10.2019 15.0N 126.6W WEAK 12UTC 01.10.2019 14.8N 125.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 251557