000 WTNT80 EGRR 250357 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 25.09.2019 TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 31.3N 68.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.09.2019 31.3N 68.7W MODERATE 12UTC 25.09.2019 32.0N 67.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.09.2019 32.4N 65.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2019 33.0N 63.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2019 33.9N 61.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 65.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.09.2019 18.6N 65.0W WEAK 12UTC 25.09.2019 21.3N 64.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2019 23.5N 63.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2019 25.5N 63.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2019 27.2N 62.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2019 27.8N 61.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2019 28.3N 60.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2019 28.8N 62.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2019 28.9N 64.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2019 29.1N 67.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2019 28.9N 68.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2019 28.6N 70.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2019 28.3N 71.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 140.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.09.2019 18.6N 140.0W WEAK 12UTC 25.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 13.1N 31.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.09.2019 13.1N 31.7W MODERATE 12UTC 25.09.2019 13.6N 34.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.09.2019 14.3N 36.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.09.2019 15.3N 38.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.09.2019 17.1N 39.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.09.2019 19.2N 40.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.09.2019 21.0N 42.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.09.2019 22.0N 42.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2019 23.5N 42.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2019 25.3N 42.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2019 26.8N 41.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2019 28.6N 40.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 01.10.2019 30.6N 39.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 17.1N 113.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.09.2019 17.1N 113.0W WEAK 00UTC 27.09.2019 18.9N 112.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2019 18.6N 110.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 12.0N 140.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 29.09.2019 11.7N 140.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.09.2019 12.5N 138.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2019 13.3N 137.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2019 14.7N 135.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 14.0N 156.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 30.09.2019 14.0N 156.4W WEAK 12UTC 30.09.2019 13.5N 156.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2019 13.2N 155.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 15.0N 127.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.10.2019 15.0N 127.5W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 250357