539 WTNT80 EGRR 241555 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 24.09.2019 TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 30.7N 69.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 24.09.2019 30.7N 69.2W MODERATE 00UTC 25.09.2019 31.1N 68.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2019 31.7N 67.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2019 32.0N 65.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.09.2019 32.5N 63.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.09.2019 32.8N 62.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2019 32.3N 62.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 65.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 24.09.2019 17.8N 65.8W WEAK 00UTC 25.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 138.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 24.09.2019 17.5N 138.7W WEAK 00UTC 25.09.2019 18.7N 140.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 12.3N 28.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 24.09.2019 12.3N 28.7W WEAK 00UTC 25.09.2019 13.1N 31.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2019 13.6N 34.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.09.2019 14.4N 37.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.09.2019 15.3N 39.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.09.2019 16.9N 40.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.09.2019 18.6N 42.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 28.09.2019 20.0N 43.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2019 21.1N 44.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.09.2019 22.3N 44.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2019 23.6N 45.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2019 24.9N 45.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.09.2019 26.0N 45.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 15.1N 112.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 26.09.2019 15.1N 112.8W WEAK 12UTC 26.09.2019 17.6N 112.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2019 19.0N 111.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 24.2N 63.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 26.09.2019 24.2N 63.6W WEAK 12UTC 26.09.2019 26.2N 62.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2019 27.9N 60.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 13.5N 140.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.09.2019 13.0N 140.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2019 12.9N 139.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2019 13.1N 137.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2019 14.3N 135.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 241555