415 WTNT80 EGRR 221555 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 22.09.2019 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.6N 18.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL902019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.09.2019 12.6N 18.9W WEAK 00UTC 23.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 25.5N 66.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.09.2019 25.5N 66.6W WEAK 00UTC 23.09.2019 27.2N 67.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2019 27.7N 68.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2019 28.7N 68.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2019 29.9N 69.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 25.09.2019 30.3N 70.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.09.2019 30.5N 70.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.09.2019 30.4N 70.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.09.2019 30.4N 70.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2019 30.2N 70.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2019 28.9N 71.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.09.2019 28.0N 71.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2019 27.8N 71.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 12.1N 61.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.09.2019 12.1N 61.2W WEAK 00UTC 23.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.9N 133.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.09.2019 16.9N 133.3W WEAK 00UTC 23.09.2019 15.8N 134.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2019 15.6N 136.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2019 16.5N 137.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2019 17.8N 138.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2019 18.9N 139.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.09.2019 19.4N 140.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION LORENA ANALYSED POSITION : 28.2N 111.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.09.2019 28.2N 111.6W WEAK 00UTC 23.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO ANALYSED POSITION : 21.7N 111.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 22.09.2019 21.7N 111.6W WEAK 00UTC 23.09.2019 23.0N 112.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2019 24.4N 113.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 11.4N 23.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 23.09.2019 11.4N 23.0W WEAK 00UTC 24.09.2019 12.1N 26.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2019 12.5N 28.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.09.2019 13.4N 31.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 25.09.2019 14.2N 34.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.09.2019 15.2N 36.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 26.09.2019 16.2N 38.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 27.09.2019 18.0N 40.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2019 20.5N 41.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2019 23.9N 43.5W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.09.2019 25.7N 45.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 30.4N 63.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 27.09.2019 30.4N 63.6W WEAK 12UTC 27.09.2019 33.0N 64.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2019 33.6N 66.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2019 33.7N 68.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 19.0N 102.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.09.2019 19.0N 102.6W MODERATE 12UTC 28.09.2019 15.6N 102.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 221555