985 WTNT80 EGRR 201557 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 20.09.2019 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 99L ANALYSED POSITION : 10.0N 46.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL992019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.09.2019 10.0N 46.4W WEAK 00UTC 21.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 18.7N 59.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.09.2019 18.7N 59.6W WEAK 00UTC 21.09.2019 19.7N 62.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2019 20.9N 65.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2019 22.4N 66.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2019 23.6N 68.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2019 25.0N 68.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2019 26.0N 68.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2019 27.4N 67.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2019 29.4N 67.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 25.09.2019 30.3N 66.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2019 31.4N 65.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.09.2019 32.0N 62.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2019 33.3N 59.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 130.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.09.2019 17.5N 130.3W MODERATE 00UTC 21.09.2019 18.0N 131.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2019 17.8N 132.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2019 17.1N 133.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2019 16.4N 135.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2019 15.4N 136.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2019 15.0N 137.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2019 15.7N 138.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2019 17.5N 138.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2019 19.3N 139.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2019 20.3N 140.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2019 20.0N 140.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE LORENA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.7N 109.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.09.2019 21.7N 109.3W MODERATE 00UTC 21.09.2019 22.7N 110.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2019 23.5N 111.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM MARIO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N 110.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.09.2019 17.4N 110.4W MODERATE 00UTC 21.09.2019 17.8N 110.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2019 19.2N 110.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2019 21.2N 110.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2019 24.1N 112.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2019 26.0N 115.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2019 26.5N 117.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2019 27.0N 117.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 33.8N 48.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 24.09.2019 34.4N 47.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 24.09.2019 36.1N 48.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.09.2019 36.4N 49.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2019 36.8N 49.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2019 37.5N 50.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 12.8N 31.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 24.09.2019 12.8N 31.7W WEAK 00UTC 25.09.2019 13.9N 34.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.09.2019 14.2N 37.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2019 14.9N 40.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2019 15.5N 42.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 34.3N 170.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 26.09.2019 34.5N 171.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 26.09.2019 33.1N 173.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 201557