554 WTNT80 EGRR 181558 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 18.09.2019 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IMELDA ANALYSED POSITION : 30.3N 95.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.09.2019 30.3N 95.4W WEAK 00UTC 19.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91C ANALYSED POSITION : 20.2N 168.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP912019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.09.2019 20.2N 168.4W WEAK 00UTC 19.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 31.9N 68.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.09.2019 31.9N 68.7W INTENSE 00UTC 19.09.2019 33.3N 65.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2019 36.4N 60.7W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 20.09.2019 38.9N 58.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 20.09.2019 41.3N 57.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.09.2019 44.1N 54.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2019 45.6N 48.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2019 46.9N 40.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2019 49.8N 33.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 48.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.09.2019 15.0N 48.6W WEAK 00UTC 19.09.2019 15.5N 51.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2019 16.4N 54.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2019 17.5N 57.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2019 18.6N 59.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2019 20.3N 62.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2019 21.8N 64.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2019 23.2N 66.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2019 24.5N 67.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2019 25.6N 67.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.09.2019 26.5N 67.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2019 29.0N 66.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 24.09.2019 31.6N 65.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 126.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.09.2019 16.2N 126.6W MODERATE 00UTC 19.09.2019 15.8N 128.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2019 15.5N 129.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2019 15.7N 129.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2019 16.5N 130.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2019 17.2N 130.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2019 17.7N 131.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2019 17.8N 132.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2019 17.4N 133.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2019 17.1N 134.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2019 18.0N 135.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2019 19.5N 136.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 24.09.2019 20.0N 138.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM LORENA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.9N 103.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.09.2019 16.9N 103.4W WEAK 00UTC 19.09.2019 19.2N 105.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM MARIO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 110.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.09.2019 14.2N 110.7W WEAK 00UTC 19.09.2019 15.2N 111.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2019 17.0N 111.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2019 17.6N 111.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2019 19.2N 111.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2019 20.0N 112.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2019 20.7N 113.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2019 21.7N 115.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2019 22.8N 116.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.09.2019 24.4N 117.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2019 26.1N 118.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2019 27.0N 117.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 13.9N 135.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.09.2019 13.9N 135.2W WEAK 00UTC 19.09.2019 13.7N 135.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2019 13.3N 136.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2019 12.9N 136.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2019 12.7N 136.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2019 13.4N 135.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2019 13.8N 135.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2019 13.2N 136.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.09.2019 12.6N 136.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 23.09.2019 12.5N 136.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 23.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 21.4N 171.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.09.2019 22.3N 170.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2019 26.1N 170.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2019 27.5N 171.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2019 29.1N 173.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 31.3N 51.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 23.09.2019 31.3N 51.0W WEAK 12UTC 23.09.2019 30.9N 49.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.09.2019 30.9N 49.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.09.2019 31.4N 50.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 181558