905 WTNT80 EGRR 160359 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 16.09.2019 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 9.6N 41.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.09.2019 9.6N 41.2W WEAK 12UTC 16.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 29.2N 77.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.09.2019 29.2N 77.8W MODERATE 12UTC 16.09.2019 29.7N 76.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 17.09.2019 30.2N 75.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2019 30.8N 73.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2019 31.5N 71.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2019 32.1N 68.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 19.09.2019 33.6N 64.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 19.09.2019 36.4N 58.8W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2019 40.0N 53.4W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 20.09.2019 41.8N 46.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 21.09.2019 40.8N 39.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 21.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N 122.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.09.2019 17.1N 122.4W MODERATE 12UTC 16.09.2019 17.0N 123.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2019 17.0N 124.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2019 16.7N 125.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2019 16.4N 126.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2019 15.9N 127.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2019 16.1N 128.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2019 16.3N 129.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2019 16.7N 131.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2019 17.6N 132.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2019 18.5N 132.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2019 19.1N 133.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.09.2019 16.2N 134.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 11.8N 41.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.09.2019 12.1N 42.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 17.09.2019 13.1N 44.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2019 14.5N 45.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2019 15.3N 48.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2019 15.8N 51.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2019 16.4N 53.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2019 17.0N 56.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2019 17.6N 59.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2019 18.6N 61.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2019 18.9N 63.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2019 19.0N 64.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 13.5N 134.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.09.2019 13.6N 134.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 17.09.2019 14.0N 135.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2019 13.9N 135.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2019 13.5N 135.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2019 13.3N 135.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2019 13.4N 136.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2019 13.3N 136.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2019 13.8N 136.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2019 14.5N 135.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2019 15.3N 135.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 12.2N 150.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.09.2019 12.3N 149.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2019 13.6N 150.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2019 14.2N 152.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2019 14.1N 153.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2019 14.1N 155.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2019 14.3N 156.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2019 14.6N 157.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2019 15.2N 158.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2019 17.6N 157.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 13.7N 95.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.09.2019 13.7N 95.3W WEAK 00UTC 19.09.2019 14.4N 95.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2019 15.0N 95.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 14.7N 112.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.09.2019 14.7N 112.1W WEAK 00UTC 19.09.2019 16.1N 114.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2019 17.2N 116.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2019 17.6N 117.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2019 17.7N 118.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2019 17.5N 118.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2019 17.3N 118.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2019 16.3N 119.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 20.0N 174.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.09.2019 20.0N 174.1W MODERATE 00UTC 19.09.2019 21.0N 171.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2019 22.8N 170.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2019 25.4N 171.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2019 27.3N 174.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2019 29.5N 178.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2019 30.8N 177.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2019 31.8N 175.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 14.1N 39.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.09.2019 14.1N 39.9W WEAK 12UTC 19.09.2019 14.1N 42.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2019 14.8N 45.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2019 15.1N 49.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2019 16.1N 53.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2019 18.0N 56.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.09.2019 21.4N 59.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 14.2N 100.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.09.2019 14.2N 100.6W MODERATE 00UTC 21.09.2019 14.9N 102.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.09.2019 15.3N 105.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 22.09.2019 15.9N 107.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 160359