331 WTNT80 EGRR 150356 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 15.09.2019 TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 27.4N 77.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.09.2019 27.4N 77.3W WEAK 12UTC 15.09.2019 28.5N 78.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2019 29.2N 77.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2019 29.7N 76.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2019 30.0N 75.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2019 30.7N 73.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2019 31.4N 71.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2019 32.1N 69.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2019 33.1N 64.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 19.09.2019 35.4N 60.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2019 37.5N 54.8W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 20.09.2019 39.8N 48.7W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 21.09.2019 41.9N 39.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY HURRICANE KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 119.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.09.2019 16.7N 119.8W MODERATE 12UTC 15.09.2019 16.9N 121.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2019 16.7N 122.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2019 17.0N 123.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2019 17.3N 124.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2019 17.2N 125.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2019 17.0N 126.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2019 16.4N 128.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2019 16.3N 129.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2019 16.5N 131.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2019 17.7N 132.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2019 19.2N 132.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2019 20.3N 132.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 13.4N 136.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.09.2019 13.1N 136.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 16.09.2019 12.7N 135.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2019 12.8N 136.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2019 12.8N 136.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2019 12.4N 136.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2019 11.9N 136.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2019 12.2N 136.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2019 12.6N 136.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2019 13.3N 136.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2019 14.8N 136.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2019 16.0N 136.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 10.7N 40.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.09.2019 11.4N 41.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 17.09.2019 12.3N 43.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2019 13.8N 44.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2019 14.9N 46.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2019 15.6N 49.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.09.2019 16.3N 51.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2019 17.2N 53.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2019 18.7N 54.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2019 19.5N 56.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2019 19.8N 57.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 11.3N 150.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.09.2019 11.3N 150.1W WEAK 00UTC 17.09.2019 12.1N 150.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2019 12.2N 151.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2019 12.9N 151.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2019 13.5N 152.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2019 13.9N 153.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2019 13.9N 153.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2019 13.7N 154.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2019 13.9N 155.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2019 14.2N 156.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 14.5N 163.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.09.2019 14.5N 163.8W WEAK 12UTC 17.09.2019 15.2N 164.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2019 16.5N 164.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2019 17.7N 164.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2019 19.4N 164.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 13.8N 111.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.09.2019 14.3N 111.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2019 16.1N 113.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2019 17.0N 115.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2019 17.5N 115.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2019 17.5N 115.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2019 17.5N 115.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 15.3N 36.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.09.2019 15.0N 36.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2019 15.3N 39.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2019 16.0N 42.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2019 17.3N 45.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2019 19.4N 49.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 23.6N 168.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.09.2019 23.6N 168.6W MODERATE 12UTC 20.09.2019 23.2N 170.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2019 23.2N 171.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 16.2N 102.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.09.2019 16.3N 103.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 150356