051 WTNT80 EGRR 121557 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 12.09.2019 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 21.8N 75.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.09.2019 21.8N 75.0W WEAK 00UTC 13.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90E ANALYSED POSITION : 16.0N 110.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP902019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.09.2019 16.0N 110.8W WEAK 00UTC 13.09.2019 16.3N 112.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2019 16.4N 114.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2019 17.1N 116.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2019 17.8N 118.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2019 18.1N 120.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2019 18.2N 122.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2019 18.2N 124.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2019 18.6N 125.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2019 19.4N 127.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2019 20.1N 128.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2019 20.5N 130.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 13.6N 131.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.09.2019 13.6N 131.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2019 13.9N 132.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2019 13.6N 132.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2019 13.6N 132.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2019 13.6N 132.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2019 13.3N 132.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2019 12.9N 132.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2019 13.4N 132.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2019 14.0N 131.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2019 15.0N 130.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2019 15.6N 130.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 25.6N 76.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 14.09.2019 25.6N 76.6W WEAK 12UTC 14.09.2019 26.7N 78.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2019 28.3N 79.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2019 29.7N 79.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2019 30.8N 79.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 16.09.2019 31.7N 78.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2019 32.2N 77.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 17.09.2019 32.7N 76.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2019 33.1N 74.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.09.2019 33.5N 72.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 11.6N 148.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.09.2019 11.6N 148.0W WEAK 00UTC 15.09.2019 12.8N 148.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2019 13.9N 149.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2019 14.4N 151.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2019 15.3N 153.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2019 16.0N 154.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2019 16.9N 154.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2019 18.3N 153.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2019 19.7N 153.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 13.2N 160.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.09.2019 13.2N 160.4W WEAK 12UTC 17.09.2019 13.5N 161.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2019 15.0N 160.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2019 15.5N 159.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 12.0N 41.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.09.2019 12.9N 42.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2019 14.2N 42.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2019 16.6N 43.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 16.1N 35.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.09.2019 17.0N 37.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2019 19.2N 39.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2019 21.0N 42.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 18.4N 171.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.09.2019 18.4N 171.4W WEAK 00UTC 18.09.2019 18.6N 170.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2019 18.5N 170.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 121557