231 WTNT80 EGRR 310359 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 31.08.2019 HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 25.2N 71.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 31.08.2019 25.2N 71.1W MODERATE 12UTC 31.08.2019 25.9N 73.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.09.2019 26.1N 75.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.09.2019 26.4N 76.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.09.2019 26.5N 77.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.09.2019 26.6N 78.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.09.2019 26.7N 78.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.09.2019 27.0N 78.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.09.2019 28.3N 79.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 04.09.2019 29.7N 80.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.09.2019 31.3N 79.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2019 33.1N 78.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2019 34.7N 75.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 12.9N 109.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.09.2019 13.4N 110.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2019 14.4N 112.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2019 15.2N 115.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2019 15.9N 116.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.09.2019 16.1N 118.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.09.2019 16.1N 119.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.09.2019 16.4N 121.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.09.2019 16.6N 123.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2019 17.2N 125.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 32.8N 60.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.09.2019 32.8N 60.2W WEAK 00UTC 05.09.2019 33.1N 58.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.09.2019 32.7N 57.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2019 33.0N 57.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 310359