528 
WTNT80 EGRR 291558

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 29.08.2019

   TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN       ANALYSED POSITION : 37.5N  70.3W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 29.08.2019  37.5N  70.3W     WEAK
 00UTC 30.08.2019  42.0N  66.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 30.08.2019  47.5N  61.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 31.08.2019        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             HURRICANE DORIAN     ANALYSED POSITION : 21.1N  67.1W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 29.08.2019  21.1N  67.1W     WEAK
 00UTC 30.08.2019  22.7N  68.5W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 30.08.2019  24.2N  70.1W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 31.08.2019  25.4N  72.1W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 31.08.2019  26.0N  74.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 01.09.2019  26.3N  76.7W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 01.09.2019  26.5N  78.7W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 02.09.2019  26.7N  80.2W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 02.09.2019  27.2N  81.7W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 03.09.2019  27.5N  82.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 03.09.2019  28.0N  84.0W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 04.09.2019  28.6N  84.9W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 04.09.2019  29.6N  85.3W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  84 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 11.9N 112.5W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 02.09.2019  11.9N 112.5W     WEAK
 12UTC 02.09.2019  12.5N 114.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 03.09.2019  13.5N 117.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 03.09.2019  13.8N 119.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 04.09.2019  13.9N 120.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.09.2019  14.1N 122.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 35.2N  16.2E

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 03.09.2019  35.5N  17.3E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 03.09.2019  34.8N  18.9E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 04.09.2019  34.1N  20.4E     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.09.2019        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 291558