277 
WTNT80 EGRR 281558

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.08.2019

        TROPICAL STORM DORIAN     ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N  64.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 28.08.2019  16.7N  64.9W     WEAK
 00UTC 29.08.2019        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

        TROPICAL STORM ERIN       ANALYSED POSITION : 33.3N  72.8W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062019

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 28.08.2019  33.3N  72.8W     WEAK
 00UTC 29.08.2019  34.7N  72.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 29.08.2019  37.6N  69.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 30.08.2019  41.8N  66.3W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 30.08.2019  46.2N  62.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 31.08.2019        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  18 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 20.0N  67.0W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 29.08.2019  20.7N  67.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 30.08.2019  22.7N  68.5W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 30.08.2019  24.3N  70.1W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 31.08.2019  25.6N  71.9W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 31.08.2019  26.3N  73.9W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 01.09.2019  26.6N  75.7W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 01.09.2019  27.0N  77.1W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 02.09.2019  27.0N  78.1W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 02.09.2019  26.9N  78.8W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 03.09.2019  26.6N  79.5W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 03.09.2019  26.9N  80.2W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 281558