000 WTNT80 EGRR 151556 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 15.10.2018 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 83.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.10.2018 15.7N 83.3W WEAK 00UTC 16.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM TARA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 104.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP222018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.10.2018 17.8N 104.3W WEAK 00UTC 16.10.2018 18.5N 104.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2018 19.0N 104.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 14.2N 94.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.10.2018 14.2N 94.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 18.10.2018 14.4N 95.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2018 15.3N 97.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2018 16.8N 101.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 12.4N 115.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.10.2018 12.0N 115.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2018 12.0N 115.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2018 13.1N 115.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.10.2018 13.8N 115.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.10.2018 14.5N 114.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2018 15.0N 113.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2018 15.2N 111.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 10.0N 141.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.10.2018 10.2N 141.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2018 10.2N 142.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.10.2018 10.4N 143.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.10.2018 10.6N 143.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2018 10.9N 144.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2018 11.4N 144.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 17.7N 105.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 20.10.2018 17.7N 105.4W WEAK 00UTC 21.10.2018 18.2N 106.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2018 18.9N 107.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 151556