000 WTNT80 EGRR 120357 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 12.10.2018 HURRICANE LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 30.2N 35.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.10.2018 30.2N 35.7W STRONG 12UTC 12.10.2018 32.0N 30.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2018 33.1N 23.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2018 34.0N 18.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.10.2018 33.1N 15.8W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 14.10.2018 31.7N 15.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.10.2018 30.6N 15.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2018 29.5N 17.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL ANALYSED POSITION : 36.7N 77.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.10.2018 36.7N 77.3W MODERATE 12UTC 12.10.2018 39.4N 71.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.10.2018 42.6N 61.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.10.2018 45.7N 48.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2018 47.3N 33.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.10.2018 47.1N 22.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.10.2018 46.7N 16.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM NADINE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 34.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.10.2018 15.0N 34.7W WEAK 12UTC 12.10.2018 15.2N 36.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.10.2018 15.2N 38.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2018 15.3N 41.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 23.6N 116.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.10.2018 23.6N 116.6W MODERATE 12UTC 12.10.2018 26.4N 113.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2018 29.0N 109.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 12.3N 134.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.10.2018 12.4N 134.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 17.10.2018 12.7N 135.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.10.2018 12.7N 136.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 15.9N 101.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.10.2018 15.9N 101.0W WEAK 00UTC 18.10.2018 15.8N 102.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 120357