000 WTNT80 EGRR 111556 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 11.10.2018 HURRICANE LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 28.8N 39.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.10.2018 28.8N 39.5W STRONG 00UTC 12.10.2018 30.3N 35.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.10.2018 32.0N 30.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2018 33.0N 24.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2018 33.6N 19.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.10.2018 32.5N 17.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 14.10.2018 31.3N 17.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.10.2018 30.3N 17.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.10.2018 29.2N 19.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.10.2018 28.5N 21.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.10.2018 28.5N 22.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM MICHAEL ANALYSED POSITION : 34.0N 81.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.10.2018 34.0N 81.6W MODERATE 00UTC 12.10.2018 36.4N 77.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2018 39.1N 71.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.10.2018 42.2N 61.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.10.2018 44.9N 48.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.10.2018 46.4N 34.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.10.2018 46.5N 23.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM NADINE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 33.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.10.2018 14.0N 33.5W MODERATE 00UTC 12.10.2018 14.2N 34.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.10.2018 14.5N 36.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.10.2018 14.8N 37.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2018 15.0N 40.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 20.9N 119.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 11.10.2018 20.9N 119.7W STRONG 00UTC 12.10.2018 23.3N 116.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2018 25.6N 113.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2018 28.1N 109.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 13.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 12.4N 136.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.10.2018 12.4N 136.8W WEAK NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 14.5N 93.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.10.2018 14.5N 93.7W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 111556