000 WTNT80 EGRR 081559 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 08.10.2018 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 9.1N 27.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 08.10.2018 9.1N 27.5W WEAK 00UTC 09.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 34.9N 47.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 08.10.2018 34.9N 47.5W MODERATE 00UTC 09.10.2018 33.3N 45.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2018 31.4N 44.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 10.10.2018 29.3N 43.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.10.2018 27.8N 44.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.10.2018 27.5N 43.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.10.2018 28.3N 41.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.10.2018 29.8N 38.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.10.2018 31.6N 33.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2018 32.5N 27.6W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 13.10.2018 32.8N 22.2W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 14.10.2018 31.8N 19.7W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 14.10.2018 30.1N 20.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY HURRICANE MICHAEL ANALYSED POSITION : 20.9N 85.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 08.10.2018 20.9N 85.1W MODERATE 00UTC 09.10.2018 22.9N 85.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 09.10.2018 24.9N 86.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2018 27.0N 86.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.10.2018 29.7N 85.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 11.10.2018 32.5N 83.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 11.10.2018 35.3N 80.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.10.2018 38.0N 75.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2018 40.2N 68.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.10.2018 43.4N 58.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.10.2018 46.5N 46.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2018 47.4N 34.2W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 14.10.2018 47.3N 24.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY HURRICANE SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 128.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 08.10.2018 15.0N 128.5W STRONG 00UTC 09.10.2018 15.6N 128.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2018 16.2N 127.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 10.10.2018 16.9N 126.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.10.2018 17.9N 124.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.10.2018 19.4N 121.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.10.2018 21.7N 118.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2018 24.2N 115.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.10.2018 26.9N 112.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 13.10.2018 30.5N 107.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 13.10.2018 33.9N 100.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2018 35.2N 95.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.10.2018 35.9N 90.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.3N 33.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.10.2018 12.3N 33.8W WEAK 00UTC 11.10.2018 13.0N 35.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.10.2018 13.9N 36.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.10.2018 14.8N 36.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.10.2018 15.5N 37.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.10.2018 15.9N 38.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.10.2018 16.2N 40.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 31.1N 114.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.10.2018 31.1N 114.5W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 081559