402 WTNT80 EGRR 031559 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 03.10.2018 HURRICANE LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 29.5N 56.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.10.2018 29.5N 56.9W STRONG 00UTC 04.10.2018 30.1N 57.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.10.2018 31.4N 57.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.10.2018 34.2N 57.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2018 36.4N 57.8W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.10.2018 37.4N 57.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2018 37.8N 56.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2018 37.6N 55.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2018 37.0N 53.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2018 36.7N 51.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.10.2018 35.5N 49.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.10.2018 33.8N 48.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2018 31.7N 48.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 12.5N 117.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.10.2018 12.5N 117.0W INTENSE 00UTC 04.10.2018 13.6N 118.6W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.10.2018 14.7N 120.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2018 15.7N 121.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.10.2018 16.3N 122.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2018 16.4N 123.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2018 16.1N 124.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.10.2018 16.0N 126.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2018 15.8N 127.8W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.10.2018 15.9N 129.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.10.2018 16.1N 130.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 09.10.2018 16.6N 131.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.10.2018 16.9N 131.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE WALAKA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 170.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 03.10.2018 18.6N 170.0W STRONG 00UTC 04.10.2018 21.8N 168.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 04.10.2018 26.0N 166.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2018 29.8N 167.6W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 05.10.2018 31.1N 168.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.10.2018 31.6N 167.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.10.2018 34.0N 165.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.10.2018 38.7N 161.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2018 45.5N 156.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 36.1N 27.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.10.2018 36.1N 27.2W WEAK 12UTC 04.10.2018 36.1N 25.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2018 36.3N 24.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2018 36.5N 22.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2018 36.9N 21.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 28.8N 33.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.10.2018 28.8N 33.5W WEAK 12UTC 05.10.2018 28.2N 32.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2018 27.2N 30.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2018 26.6N 27.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2018 27.8N 25.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 12.4N 89.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 06.10.2018 13.0N 90.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.10.2018 13.4N 92.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2018 13.8N 94.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2018 14.4N 95.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.10.2018 15.3N 96.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 08.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 031559