716 WTNT80 EGRR 021558 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 02.10.2018 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 31.0N 56.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.10.2018 31.0N 56.0W MODERATE 00UTC 03.10.2018 30.0N 56.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2018 29.4N 57.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.10.2018 29.8N 57.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.10.2018 31.5N 57.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.10.2018 33.9N 57.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.10.2018 35.9N 58.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.10.2018 36.4N 58.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2018 36.6N 57.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2018 36.4N 56.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2018 36.9N 55.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2018 36.9N 52.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2018 35.8N 50.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION ROSA ANALYSED POSITION : 30.1N 114.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.10.2018 30.1N 114.0W WEAK 00UTC 03.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 10.1N 113.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.10.2018 10.1N 113.7W STRONG 00UTC 03.10.2018 11.2N 115.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.10.2018 12.1N 117.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2018 13.1N 118.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2018 14.4N 120.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2018 15.3N 121.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2018 15.6N 123.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2018 15.8N 124.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 06.10.2018 15.8N 126.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2018 15.9N 127.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.10.2018 16.1N 129.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2018 16.8N 130.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.10.2018 17.5N 131.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE WALAKA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 170.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.10.2018 14.0N 170.4W STRONG 00UTC 03.10.2018 15.6N 170.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2018 18.2N 169.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.10.2018 21.4N 168.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 04.10.2018 25.0N 166.6W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.10.2018 28.8N 167.5W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 05.10.2018 30.2N 168.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.10.2018 30.9N 168.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.10.2018 32.8N 166.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.10.2018 38.6N 162.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.10.2018 46.3N 157.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.10.2018 52.8N 152.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2018 POST-TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 14.1N 95.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 07.10.2018 14.1N 95.0W WEAK 12UTC 07.10.2018 14.2N 95.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 08.10.2018 14.7N 96.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 08.10.2018 15.9N 96.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 32.9N 28.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 07.10.2018 32.9N 28.4W WEAK 12UTC 07.10.2018 31.1N 29.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 08.10.2018 30.3N 29.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 08.10.2018 30.0N 30.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 021558