591 WTNT80 EGRR 010358 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 01.10.2018 TROPICAL STORM LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 33.4N 53.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.10.2018 33.4N 53.3W MODERATE 12UTC 01.10.2018 33.1N 54.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2018 32.8N 55.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.10.2018 31.4N 56.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2018 30.2N 56.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.10.2018 30.1N 56.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.10.2018 30.8N 56.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.10.2018 32.4N 55.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2018 34.1N 55.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2018 35.3N 55.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2018 35.8N 54.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2018 35.8N 53.2W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.10.2018 35.6N 51.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM ROSA ANALYSED POSITION : 25.4N 117.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.10.2018 25.4N 117.9W MODERATE 12UTC 01.10.2018 26.7N 116.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2018 28.0N 115.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.10.2018 31.3N 114.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM SERGIO ANALYSED POSITION : 11.4N 107.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP212018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.10.2018 11.4N 107.1W MODERATE 12UTC 01.10.2018 10.8N 109.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2018 10.2N 112.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.10.2018 10.7N 114.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2018 11.4N 117.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2018 12.0N 119.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2018 13.1N 121.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.10.2018 14.3N 123.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2018 14.9N 124.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2018 15.4N 126.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 06.10.2018 16.4N 127.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.10.2018 17.3N 129.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2018 17.9N 130.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM WALAKA ANALYSED POSITION : 11.7N 166.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : CP012018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.10.2018 11.7N 166.4W MODERATE 12UTC 01.10.2018 12.0N 168.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2018 12.5N 169.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.10.2018 13.8N 170.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2018 15.8N 170.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.10.2018 18.3N 169.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 04.10.2018 21.3N 168.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 04.10.2018 23.8N 166.2W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.10.2018 27.4N 165.7W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 05.10.2018 28.3N 167.6W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 06.10.2018 29.2N 167.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.10.2018 29.7N 166.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 07.10.2018 31.2N 164.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 35.4N 26.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 04.10.2018 35.4N 26.7W WEAK 00UTC 05.10.2018 35.2N 25.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2018 35.0N 24.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2018 34.1N 23.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2018 35.3N 22.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 9.3N 137.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 05.10.2018 9.3N 137.3W WEAK 12UTC 05.10.2018 9.9N 135.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2018 9.8N 134.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2018 9.5N 133.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2018 10.1N 131.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 8.1N 147.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.10.2018 8.2N 147.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2018 8.3N 146.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2018 8.3N 145.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2018 8.2N 145.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 11.0N 33.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.10.2018 11.0N 33.1W WEAK 00UTC 06.10.2018 11.4N 36.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2018 11.7N 38.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2018 12.0N 40.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 35.3N 26.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 07.10.2018 33.2N 27.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 14.5N 94.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 07.10.2018 14.5N 94.2W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 010358