395 WTNT80 EGRR 271559 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 27.09.2018 TROPICAL STORM KIRK ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 58.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 27.09.2018 13.9N 58.6W WEAK 00UTC 28.09.2018 14.7N 61.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2018 15.3N 64.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2018 16.1N 66.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2018 16.5N 69.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE LESLIE ANALYSED POSITION : 36.9N 42.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 27.09.2018 36.9N 42.4W STRONG 00UTC 28.09.2018 36.9N 44.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.09.2018 36.2N 46.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2018 35.4N 49.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2018 35.0N 50.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2018 35.2N 51.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2018 35.6N 52.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2018 35.8N 53.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2018 35.8N 54.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2018 35.7N 55.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.10.2018 34.5N 55.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2018 34.1N 56.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.10.2018 33.6N 57.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY HURRICANE ROSA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 115.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 27.09.2018 17.0N 115.1W STRONG 00UTC 28.09.2018 16.9N 117.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.09.2018 17.1N 118.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.09.2018 17.9N 119.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2018 19.5N 119.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2018 21.4N 120.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2018 23.3N 120.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2018 25.2N 119.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.10.2018 26.9N 118.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2018 28.6N 116.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.10.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 13.1N 153.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.09.2018 13.1N 154.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2018 13.4N 157.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2018 13.4N 161.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2018 12.9N 164.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.10.2018 12.8N 167.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.10.2018 13.4N 170.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2018 14.3N 172.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.10.2018 15.5N 173.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2018 16.7N 175.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2018 18.2N 175.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 11.2N 100.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 29.09.2018 11.4N 101.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2018 11.5N 104.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2018 11.3N 107.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.10.2018 10.8N 109.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.10.2018 10.8N 111.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 02.10.2018 11.0N 113.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 02.10.2018 11.3N 116.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2018 11.7N 118.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2018 12.5N 120.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 271559