773 WTNT80 EGRR 151602 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 15.09.2018 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISAAC ANALYSED POSITION : 16.3N 70.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.09.2018 16.3N 70.5W WEAK 00UTC 16.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 33.6N 79.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.09.2018 33.6N 79.4W MODERATE 00UTC 16.09.2018 33.8N 80.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2018 34.4N 82.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2018 36.5N 83.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2018 38.6N 83.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2018 39.7N 80.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2018 41.8N 74.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2018 41.7N 70.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.09.2018 43.4N 63.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.09.2018 45.6N 55.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.09.2018 48.0N 47.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.09.2018 50.3N 40.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.09.2018 51.5N 36.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 38.2N 34.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.09.2018 38.2N 34.7W STRONG 00UTC 16.09.2018 40.6N 31.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2018 43.5N 27.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2018 46.0N 21.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2018 49.2N 13.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM JOYCE ANALYSED POSITION : 32.0N 41.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.09.2018 32.0N 41.6W MODERATE 00UTC 16.09.2018 33.3N 38.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2018 34.4N 35.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2018 34.5N 32.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2018 33.9N 29.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2018 32.7N 27.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2018 31.3N 27.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2018 30.3N 27.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2018 30.3N 29.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2018 30.1N 30.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.6N 169.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.09.2018 19.6N 169.9W WEAK 00UTC 16.09.2018 21.3N 171.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2018 22.9N 173.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2018 23.4N 176.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2018 23.6N 178.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2018 23.4N 179.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2018 22.9N 178.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 16.7N 73.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.09.2018 16.7N 73.9W WEAK 00UTC 17.09.2018 17.8N 75.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2018 17.9N 78.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2018 18.9N 80.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.09.2018 19.2N 81.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.09.2018 20.0N 83.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.09.2018 20.5N 84.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 18.0N 129.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 21.09.2018 18.8N 129.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 151602