560 WTNT80 EGRR 120405 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 12.09.2018 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 19.9N 89.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.09.2018 19.9N 89.9W WEAK 12UTC 12.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 27.9N 68.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.09.2018 27.9N 68.0W STRONG 12UTC 12.09.2018 29.2N 70.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2018 31.3N 73.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.09.2018 33.1N 75.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.09.2018 34.0N 76.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2018 34.1N 77.8W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 15.09.2018 34.2N 78.1W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 15.09.2018 34.1N 78.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2018 34.1N 79.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2018 34.3N 81.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2018 35.6N 82.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2018 38.0N 83.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2018 40.8N 81.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.4N 35.2W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.09.2018 17.4N 35.2W STRONG 12UTC 12.09.2018 19.2N 36.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.09.2018 21.4N 36.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.09.2018 23.3N 37.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 14.09.2018 25.1N 37.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2018 27.6N 37.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2018 30.3N 36.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2018 33.5N 34.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2018 36.6N 31.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2018 39.7N 27.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2018 42.2N 22.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.09.2018 47.0N 18.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 51.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.09.2018 14.3N 51.4W MODERATE 12UTC 12.09.2018 14.1N 54.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.09.2018 14.6N 56.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2018 14.8N 59.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2018 14.8N 61.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2018 14.7N 65.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2018 14.8N 68.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2018 14.9N 71.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2018 15.0N 73.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2018 15.3N 75.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2018 16.1N 77.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2018 16.8N 80.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2018 17.3N 82.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.4N 153.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.09.2018 21.4N 153.7W WEAK 12UTC 12.09.2018 21.2N 155.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2018 20.0N 159.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2018 19.7N 161.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2018 19.7N 164.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2018 19.4N 166.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2018 19.1N 169.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2018 19.9N 171.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2018 20.5N 173.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2018 21.3N 175.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2018 21.7N 178.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2018 21.9N 179.3E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2018 21.7N 176.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAUL ANALYSED POSITION : 22.2N 126.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 12.09.2018 22.2N 126.0W WEAK 12UTC 12.09.2018 22.8N 127.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2018 23.0N 129.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2018 23.1N 130.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2018 22.8N 131.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2018 22.5N 131.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 36.5N 40.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.09.2018 35.8N 41.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2018 34.8N 42.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.09.2018 34.4N 42.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2018 34.5N 42.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2018 35.1N 41.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2018 36.7N 39.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2018 38.7N 37.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2018 41.1N 35.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2018 42.8N 32.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2018 43.4N 27.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 14.1N 105.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.09.2018 14.1N 106.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 16.09.2018 15.9N 108.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2018 16.0N 109.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.09.2018 16.5N 111.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.09.2018 17.8N 112.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 120405