034 WTNT80 EGRR 110408 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 11.09.2018 HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 61.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.09.2018 25.6N 61.9W STRONG 12UTC 11.09.2018 26.4N 65.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2018 27.6N 68.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2018 28.9N 71.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.09.2018 31.0N 73.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.09.2018 32.7N 75.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.09.2018 33.9N 77.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2018 34.6N 77.9W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 15.09.2018 35.3N 77.8W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 15.09.2018 35.6N 78.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2018 35.7N 80.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2018 36.7N 83.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2018 39.0N 84.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 32.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.09.2018 15.0N 32.1W STRONG 12UTC 11.09.2018 15.8N 33.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2018 17.1N 34.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2018 18.9N 35.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.09.2018 21.0N 36.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.09.2018 22.8N 37.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.09.2018 24.5N 36.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2018 26.3N 36.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2018 28.4N 35.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2018 30.3N 34.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2018 33.2N 31.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 46.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.09.2018 14.5N 46.0W MODERATE 12UTC 11.09.2018 14.1N 48.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2018 14.0N 50.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2018 14.2N 51.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2018 14.7N 52.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2018 15.2N 54.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2018 15.7N 56.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2018 16.4N 57.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.09.2018 16.9N 59.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2018 18.0N 60.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2018 19.8N 59.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2018 22.2N 58.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2018 25.0N 57.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.2N 149.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.09.2018 22.2N 149.0W MODERATE 12UTC 11.09.2018 21.7N 151.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 12.09.2018 21.1N 154.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.09.2018 20.8N 157.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2018 19.2N 159.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2018 18.5N 162.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2018 18.0N 164.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2018 17.5N 166.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2018 17.8N 169.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2018 18.3N 171.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2018 19.5N 173.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2018 20.6N 175.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2018 21.4N 178.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM PAUL ANALYSED POSITION : 21.3N 121.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 11.09.2018 21.3N 121.6W WEAK 12UTC 11.09.2018 22.2N 123.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2018 22.2N 126.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2018 22.6N 128.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2018 22.7N 129.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2018 23.1N 130.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2018 22.8N 131.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2018 22.6N 131.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 37.2N 38.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.09.2018 37.5N 39.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.09.2018 36.7N 41.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2018 35.5N 41.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2018 35.8N 41.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2018 37.6N 40.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2018 38.6N 40.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2018 39.2N 39.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2018 39.2N 39.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2018 39.7N 37.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.09.2018 40.7N 33.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 13.6N 103.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.09.2018 13.6N 103.1W WEAK 00UTC 16.09.2018 14.2N 104.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2018 15.5N 107.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.09.2018 15.8N 108.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 110408