651 WTNT80 EGRR 101610 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 10.09.2018 HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.9N 59.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.09.2018 24.9N 59.3W STRONG 00UTC 11.09.2018 25.5N 61.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2018 26.5N 64.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2018 28.0N 67.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.09.2018 29.4N 70.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 13.09.2018 31.5N 73.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.09.2018 33.3N 75.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.09.2018 34.4N 76.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2018 35.2N 77.8W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 15.09.2018 36.1N 78.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 15.09.2018 37.0N 78.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2018 37.7N 79.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2018 39.2N 79.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY HURRICANE HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 29.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.09.2018 14.2N 29.5W STRONG 00UTC 11.09.2018 15.1N 32.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.09.2018 15.9N 34.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2018 17.2N 35.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2018 18.9N 36.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.09.2018 21.4N 36.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.09.2018 23.1N 36.7W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 14.09.2018 24.7N 36.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2018 26.1N 35.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2018 27.6N 34.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2018 29.4N 33.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2018 31.7N 30.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE ISAAC ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 43.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.09.2018 14.4N 43.3W STRONG 00UTC 11.09.2018 14.4N 45.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2018 14.2N 47.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.09.2018 14.4N 49.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2018 14.7N 50.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2018 15.4N 52.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2018 16.2N 53.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2018 17.2N 55.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2018 18.0N 57.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2018 18.9N 58.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2018 20.3N 59.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2018 22.8N 58.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2018 26.0N 58.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY HURRICANE OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.9N 147.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.09.2018 21.9N 147.5W MODERATE 00UTC 11.09.2018 21.8N 149.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2018 21.4N 151.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.09.2018 20.8N 153.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.09.2018 20.7N 156.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2018 19.5N 159.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2018 18.7N 162.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2018 18.4N 164.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2018 18.4N 167.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2018 18.9N 169.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2018 20.0N 171.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2018 21.9N 174.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2018 24.2N 177.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM PAUL ANALYSED POSITION : 20.0N 119.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 10.09.2018 20.0N 119.7W WEAK 00UTC 11.09.2018 21.0N 121.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2018 21.4N 123.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2018 22.2N 125.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2018 22.4N 127.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2018 22.5N 128.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2018 23.2N 129.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2018 23.2N 129.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 37.0N 40.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 13.09.2018 37.0N 40.3W WEAK 00UTC 14.09.2018 36.5N 39.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2018 37.7N 38.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2018 38.4N 37.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2018 40.0N 34.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2018 40.8N 33.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2018 39.2N 32.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 25.4N 96.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.09.2018 25.4N 96.2W WEAK 00UTC 15.09.2018 26.4N 97.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2018 27.0N 98.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2018 27.6N 100.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.09.2018 28.0N 101.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 13.0N 104.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.09.2018 13.6N 105.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.09.2018 14.1N 107.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 101610