734 WTNT80 EGRR 100405 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 10.09.2018 HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.4N 57.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.09.2018 24.4N 57.4W MODERATE 12UTC 10.09.2018 24.8N 59.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2018 25.6N 61.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2018 26.7N 64.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.09.2018 28.4N 67.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.09.2018 30.3N 70.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 13.09.2018 32.2N 72.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.09.2018 33.8N 74.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2018 35.0N 75.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 14.09.2018 35.7N 76.3W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 15.09.2018 36.4N 76.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2018 36.8N 76.9W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 16.09.2018 37.2N 77.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY HURRICANE HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 26.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.09.2018 13.5N 26.7W MODERATE 12UTC 10.09.2018 14.1N 29.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2018 15.2N 31.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.09.2018 16.1N 34.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2018 17.2N 35.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2018 18.8N 36.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2018 21.1N 37.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2018 23.2N 37.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.09.2018 24.8N 37.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 14.09.2018 25.9N 36.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.09.2018 27.0N 35.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2018 27.4N 35.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2018 28.0N 34.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE ISAAC ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 40.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.09.2018 14.2N 40.9W MODERATE 12UTC 10.09.2018 14.3N 43.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2018 14.2N 45.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2018 14.2N 47.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2018 14.4N 49.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2018 14.5N 51.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2018 15.0N 52.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2018 15.5N 54.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2018 16.4N 55.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2018 17.8N 57.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2018 19.1N 59.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2018 20.5N 60.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2018 22.5N 60.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY HURRICANE OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.8N 145.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.09.2018 21.8N 145.6W MODERATE 12UTC 10.09.2018 21.7N 147.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2018 21.7N 148.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2018 21.2N 150.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.09.2018 20.5N 153.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.09.2018 20.1N 154.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2018 19.2N 158.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2018 18.5N 160.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2018 18.2N 163.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2018 18.4N 165.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2018 19.0N 168.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2018 19.8N 170.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2018 20.8N 173.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM PAUL ANALYSED POSITION : 19.0N 118.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.09.2018 19.0N 118.9W WEAK 12UTC 10.09.2018 19.7N 120.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2018 20.9N 121.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2018 21.2N 122.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2018 21.7N 124.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2018 22.2N 126.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2018 22.6N 127.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2018 23.3N 128.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2018 23.3N 128.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 37.0N 38.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 12.09.2018 37.0N 38.2W WEAK 00UTC 13.09.2018 37.8N 39.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2018 37.3N 39.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.09.2018 38.7N 37.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2018 39.0N 37.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.09.2018 39.9N 34.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2018 40.6N 31.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2018 41.9N 27.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 37.2N 56.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.09.2018 35.9N 56.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 15.09.2018 34.0N 59.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.09.2018 32.7N 61.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 13.2N 103.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.09.2018 12.9N 104.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.09.2018 14.2N 106.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 100405