714 WTNT80 EGRR 091606 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.09.2018 HURRICANE FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.4N 55.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.09.2018 24.4N 55.9W MODERATE 00UTC 10.09.2018 24.4N 57.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.09.2018 24.8N 59.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2018 25.6N 61.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2018 26.5N 64.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.09.2018 27.7N 67.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.09.2018 29.1N 71.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.09.2018 31.1N 73.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.09.2018 32.8N 75.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.09.2018 34.2N 76.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 14.09.2018 34.9N 78.3W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 15.09.2018 35.5N 79.1W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 15.09.2018 36.4N 79.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM HELENE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.1N 24.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.09.2018 13.1N 24.4W MODERATE 00UTC 10.09.2018 13.9N 26.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2018 14.2N 29.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.09.2018 15.3N 31.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2018 16.5N 33.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2018 17.8N 35.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.09.2018 19.6N 36.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2018 22.3N 37.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 13.09.2018 25.0N 37.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 14.09.2018 27.8N 37.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2018 31.3N 35.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.09.2018 34.5N 32.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2018 37.8N 29.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 38.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.09.2018 14.2N 38.7W MODERATE 00UTC 10.09.2018 14.4N 40.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2018 14.3N 43.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2018 14.2N 45.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2018 14.2N 47.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2018 14.3N 49.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2018 14.4N 50.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.09.2018 15.1N 51.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2018 15.9N 53.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2018 17.3N 53.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 14.09.2018 18.9N 55.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2018 20.6N 56.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2018 23.1N 56.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY HURRICANE OLIVIA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.7N 143.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.09.2018 21.7N 143.1W MODERATE 00UTC 10.09.2018 21.4N 145.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2018 21.4N 147.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2018 21.4N 149.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2018 20.7N 151.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.09.2018 19.9N 153.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.09.2018 19.4N 154.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2018 18.2N 157.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2018 18.2N 160.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2018 17.9N 163.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2018 18.0N 165.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2018 18.6N 167.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM PAUL ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 118.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.09.2018 17.2N 118.4W WEAK 00UTC 10.09.2018 18.9N 118.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.09.2018 19.5N 119.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.09.2018 20.7N 121.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.09.2018 21.8N 123.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.09.2018 21.9N 124.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.09.2018 22.4N 126.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.09.2018 23.0N 127.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.09.2018 23.8N 128.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2018 24.3N 128.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2018 25.2N 128.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 15.09.2018 25.7N 128.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2018 26.2N 128.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 36.6N 42.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 13.09.2018 36.6N 42.2W WEAK 12UTC 13.09.2018 35.8N 42.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 14.09.2018 36.4N 41.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 14.09.2018 38.2N 41.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 15.09.2018 38.9N 40.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.09.2018 38.4N 38.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 12.7N 99.2W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.09.2018 12.4N 100.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.09.2018 12.7N 102.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 35.6N 51.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.09.2018 35.4N 51.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 091606