236 WTNT80 EGRR 011606 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 01.09.2018 TROPICAL STORM FLORENCE ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 27.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.09.2018 14.5N 27.7W WEAK 00UTC 02.09.2018 15.4N 29.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2018 16.4N 32.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2018 17.2N 34.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2018 17.7N 38.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.09.2018 18.2N 40.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.09.2018 18.6N 42.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.09.2018 19.4N 43.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.09.2018 20.6N 45.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2018 21.8N 46.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2018 23.1N 48.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2018 24.1N 49.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2018 24.8N 50.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE HURRICANE MIRIAM ANALYSED POSITION : 22.3N 140.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP152018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.09.2018 22.3N 140.7W MODERATE 00UTC 02.09.2018 24.4N 141.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 02.09.2018 26.4N 142.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.09.2018 28.1N 144.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2018 29.3N 145.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.09.2018 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE NORMAN ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 123.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP162018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.09.2018 16.2N 123.1W MODERATE 00UTC 02.09.2018 16.4N 125.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2018 16.9N 127.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2018 18.0N 130.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.09.2018 19.0N 133.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.09.2018 20.0N 136.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.09.2018 20.5N 138.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 05.09.2018 20.6N 141.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.09.2018 20.7N 142.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2018 20.9N 144.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2018 21.5N 146.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2018 22.1N 147.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2018 23.3N 149.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL DEPRESSION 17E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 108.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172018 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.09.2018 15.3N 108.6W WEAK 00UTC 02.09.2018 16.3N 109.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.09.2018 16.4N 112.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.09.2018 17.4N 112.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.09.2018 17.8N 114.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.09.2018 17.3N 116.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.09.2018 16.8N 117.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 05.09.2018 16.9N 119.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.09.2018 17.4N 121.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.09.2018 18.1N 123.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 06.09.2018 19.1N 126.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2018 20.3N 129.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.09.2018 21.3N 132.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 28.6N 93.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.09.2018 28.6N 93.1W WEAK 00UTC 06.09.2018 28.9N 94.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.09.2018 28.9N 95.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2018 28.1N 96.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 07.09.2018 27.2N 98.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 15.4N 27.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 06.09.2018 15.4N 27.5W WEAK 12UTC 06.09.2018 16.8N 30.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.09.2018 17.8N 32.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 07.09.2018 18.3N 34.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 011606