000
WTNT80 EGRR 271605

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 27.10.2017

        TROPICAL STORM SELMA      ANALYSED POSITION : 10.3N  89.4W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202017

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 27.10.2017  10.3N  89.4W     WEAK
 00UTC 28.10.2017  12.0N  88.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 28.10.2017        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  36 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 23.4N  81.2W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 29.10.2017  23.4N  81.2W     WEAK
 12UTC 29.10.2017  25.5N  78.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 30.10.2017  29.8N  74.0W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 30.10.2017  35.2N  68.5W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 31.10.2017        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  54 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 34.8N  75.1W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 30.10.2017  37.5N  73.2W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 30.10.2017  46.5N  73.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 31.10.2017  52.8N  75.7W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 31.10.2017  54.8N  77.1W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 01.11.2017  POST-TROPICAL

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  90 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 31.5N  39.2W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 31.10.2017  32.2N  37.8W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 01.11.2017  34.4N  36.8W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 01.11.2017  34.1N  39.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 02.11.2017  33.6N  40.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 02.11.2017  33.2N  43.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 271605