000 WTNT80 EGRR 160404 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 16.10.2017 HURRICANE OPHELIA ANALYSED POSITION : 47.8N 13.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.10.2017 47.8N 13.9W STRONG 12UTC 16.10.2017 52.3N 10.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.10.2017 POST-TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 32.1N 67.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.10.2017 33.5N 65.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.10.2017 35.8N 61.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.10.2017 37.6N 55.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.10.2017 37.5N 47.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.10.2017 36.1N 42.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.10.2017 35.3N 40.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.10.2017 36.4N 40.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.10.2017 39.2N 38.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 30.0N 63.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.10.2017 30.2N 62.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 33.1N 53.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 22.10.2017 33.1N 53.4W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 160404