000
WTNT80 EGRR 091603

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.10.2017

        TROPICAL STORM OPHELIA    ANALYSED POSITION : 31.4N  39.8W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172017

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 09.10.2017  31.4N  39.8W     WEAK
 00UTC 10.10.2017  32.2N  39.4W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 10.10.2017  31.9N  39.4W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 11.10.2017  31.1N  38.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 11.10.2017  30.0N  38.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 12.10.2017  28.9N  38.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 12.10.2017  29.1N  37.3W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 13.10.2017  29.7N  37.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 13.10.2017  30.5N  36.6W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 14.10.2017  31.3N  35.3W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 14.10.2017  32.0N  32.8W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 15.10.2017  32.2N  29.5W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 15.10.2017  32.3N  26.7W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  30 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 10.5N 145.2W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 11.10.2017  10.9N 145.6W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 11.10.2017  11.9N 146.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 12.10.2017  12.7N 147.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 12.10.2017  13.3N 148.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 13.10.2017  13.5N 149.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 13.10.2017        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 091603