000
WTNT80 EGRR 071605

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.10.2017

             HURRICANE NATE       ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N  87.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL162017

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 07.10.2017  25.6N  87.9W    STRONG
 00UTC 08.10.2017  28.8N  89.7W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 08.10.2017  31.4N  88.1W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 09.10.2017  35.2N  86.0W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 09.10.2017  39.7N  79.9W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 10.10.2017  42.7N  72.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 10.10.2017  45.2N  64.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 11.10.2017        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

    TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 32.2N  39.9W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 07.10.2017  32.2N  39.9W     WEAK
 00UTC 08.10.2017  31.5N  39.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 08.10.2017  30.6N  40.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 09.10.2017  30.5N  41.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 09.10.2017  30.9N  42.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 10.10.2017  31.5N  43.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 10.10.2017        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  60 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 :  8.7N  31.0W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 10.10.2017   8.7N  31.0W     WEAK
 12UTC 10.10.2017   9.1N  34.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 11.10.2017  10.2N  37.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 11.10.2017  10.3N  41.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 12.10.2017  10.5N  44.5W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 12.10.2017  11.1N  47.3W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 13.10.2017  12.0N  49.9W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
 12UTC 13.10.2017  12.9N  52.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 071605