000 WTNT80 EGRR 010408 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 01.10.2017 TROPICAL STORM MARIA ANALYSED POSITION : 42.2N 42.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 01.10.2017 42.2N 42.6W MODERATE 12UTC 01.10.2017 44.8N 36.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2017 47.5N 27.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 02.10.2017 48.8N 17.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 35.4N 64.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.10.2017 35.4N 64.1W WEAK 00UTC 02.10.2017 38.0N 61.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 02.10.2017 38.7N 58.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2017 39.5N 52.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2017 43.6N 45.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 04.10.2017 44.9N 43.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 04.10.2017 46.7N 41.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2017 48.4N 37.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.10.2017 51.4N 34.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2017 POST-TROPICAL NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 11.2N 140.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.10.2017 11.5N 141.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 03.10.2017 12.8N 141.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2017 12.8N 142.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2017 13.2N 143.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2017 13.3N 144.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2017 13.3N 145.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2017 13.3N 147.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2017 13.1N 149.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2017 13.3N 150.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 11.2N 132.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.10.2017 11.2N 132.9W WEAK 12UTC 03.10.2017 11.5N 130.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2017 11.2N 128.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 19.0N 102.6W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 04.10.2017 19.0N 102.6W MODERATE 12UTC 04.10.2017 17.2N 103.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2017 18.7N 106.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 05.10.2017 20.3N 108.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2017 22.2N 110.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2017 23.3N 111.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 12.6N 88.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.10.2017 13.2N 88.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 07.10.2017 15.1N 93.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 010408