000 WTNT80 EGRR 301613 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 30.09.2017 TROPICAL STORM MARIA ANALYSED POSITION : 40.3N 48.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 30.09.2017 40.3N 48.3W STRONG 00UTC 01.10.2017 42.2N 42.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 01.10.2017 44.8N 35.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 02.10.2017 47.5N 27.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 02.10.2017 48.6N 17.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 37.4N 61.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 02.10.2017 37.4N 61.4W WEAK 12UTC 02.10.2017 37.2N 59.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 03.10.2017 38.0N 54.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 11.1N 134.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.10.2017 11.4N 134.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2017 11.8N 133.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2017 12.0N 132.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2017 12.1N 130.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2017 11.7N 129.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2017 11.5N 128.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2017 11.7N 128.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2017 12.1N 128.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2017 12.5N 127.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 11.4N 141.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.10.2017 12.0N 141.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 03.10.2017 13.3N 142.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 04.10.2017 14.1N 144.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 04.10.2017 13.8N 145.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 05.10.2017 13.8N 147.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 05.10.2017 13.5N 149.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 06.10.2017 13.4N 151.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2017 13.2N 154.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 20.0N 108.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 05.10.2017 20.0N 108.8W WEAK 00UTC 06.10.2017 20.8N 110.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 06.10.2017 22.2N 111.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 12.8N 89.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 06.10.2017 12.8N 89.8W MODERATE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 301612