000
WTNT80 EGRR 281612

 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

 AND ATLANTIC

             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.09.2017

             HURRICANE LEE        ANALYSED POSITION : 33.2N  57.2W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142017

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 28.09.2017  33.2N  57.2W   INTENSE
 00UTC 29.09.2017  35.8N  55.5W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 29.09.2017  38.9N  51.5W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 30.09.2017  42.7N  45.0W    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 30.09.2017  47.2N  34.2W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
 00UTC 01.10.2017        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

        TROPICAL STORM MARIA      ANALYSED POSITION : 36.4N  70.1W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152017

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 28.09.2017  36.4N  70.1W    STRONG
 00UTC 29.09.2017  36.5N  66.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 29.09.2017  36.9N  62.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 30.09.2017  38.6N  55.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 30.09.2017  41.1N  48.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 01.10.2017  43.8N  40.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 01.10.2017  47.0N  31.4W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 00UTC 02.10.2017  48.8N  19.4W     WEAK      WEAKENING RAPIDLY
 12UTC 02.10.2017        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  60 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 11.4N 134.7W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 01.10.2017  11.4N 134.7W     WEAK
 12UTC 01.10.2017  11.6N 134.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 02.10.2017  12.1N 135.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 02.10.2017  12.7N 135.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 03.10.2017  13.6N 134.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 03.10.2017  14.3N 133.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 04.10.2017  14.7N 132.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.10.2017  14.7N 130.8W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  60 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 13.1N 112.3W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 01.10.2017  13.1N 112.3W     WEAK
 12UTC 01.10.2017  13.5N 110.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 02.10.2017  13.7N 108.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 02.10.2017        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 30.2N 159.4W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 00UTC 03.10.2017  30.2N 159.4W     WEAK
 12UTC 03.10.2017  27.7N 162.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 04.10.2017  26.4N 163.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.10.2017  26.5N 164.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 12.2N 141.3W

  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY
  --------------     --------     --------        --------
 12UTC 03.10.2017  12.8N 141.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 00UTC 04.10.2017  13.4N 141.1W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE
 12UTC 04.10.2017  13.8N 141.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE


 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

 TOO 281612