000 WTNT80 EGRR 270409 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 27.09.2017 HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 29.7N 55.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 27.09.2017 29.7N 55.1W MODERATE 12UTC 27.09.2017 30.0N 56.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.09.2017 31.2N 57.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.09.2017 33.1N 57.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2017 35.9N 55.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2017 39.4N 51.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.09.2017 43.3N 43.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2017 47.2N 32.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM MARIA ANALYSED POSITION : 34.2N 72.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 27.09.2017 34.2N 72.7W STRONG 12UTC 27.09.2017 35.3N 72.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2017 36.1N 72.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2017 36.1N 70.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2017 36.1N 67.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2017 36.9N 63.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2017 39.0N 56.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2017 42.1N 48.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2017 46.4N 37.7W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 01.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 13.8N 119.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.09.2017 13.9N 118.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 28.09.2017 13.9N 117.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2017 13.7N 115.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2017 13.1N 114.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2017 12.5N 113.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2017 12.6N 112.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2017 13.4N 111.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2017 14.8N 109.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2017 15.2N 107.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 10.3N 138.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 28.09.2017 10.4N 137.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2017 10.8N 136.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2017 11.5N 136.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2017 11.7N 135.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2017 11.5N 134.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2017 11.1N 135.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2017 10.8N 135.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2017 11.1N 135.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2017 11.5N 134.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 03.10.2017 11.9N 133.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 15.2N 94.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.10.2017 16.2N 94.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 29.1N 163.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.10.2017 29.1N 163.3W WEAK NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 34.8N 58.9W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 03.10.2017 34.8N 58.9W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 270409