000 WTNT80 EGRR 261609 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 26.09.2017 HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 29.8N 53.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.09.2017 29.8N 53.0W WEAK 00UTC 27.09.2017 29.5N 55.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.09.2017 29.7N 56.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.09.2017 30.9N 57.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.09.2017 32.8N 57.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2017 35.3N 56.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2017 38.4N 52.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2017 42.0N 45.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2017 45.1N 36.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE MARIA ANALYSED POSITION : 33.3N 73.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.09.2017 33.3N 73.1W STRONG 00UTC 27.09.2017 34.1N 73.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2017 34.8N 73.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2017 35.5N 72.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2017 35.5N 72.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2017 35.1N 69.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2017 35.3N 66.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2017 37.0N 62.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2017 41.0N 55.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.10.2017 46.1N 45.3W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 01.10.2017 50.0N 31.7W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 02.10.2017 52.2N 16.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 12.8N 122.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 27.09.2017 12.8N 122.4W WEAK 12UTC 27.09.2017 13.8N 120.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2017 14.2N 118.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2017 14.2N 117.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2017 14.0N 116.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2017 13.3N 115.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2017 12.6N 114.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2017 12.2N 113.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2017 12.5N 112.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2017 13.6N 110.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2017 14.7N 107.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2017 15.2N 105.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 10.3N 136.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 29.09.2017 10.8N 135.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2017 11.4N 133.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2017 12.0N 132.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2017 11.7N 132.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2017 11.0N 131.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2017 10.6N 132.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 02.10.2017 10.7N 132.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 02.10.2017 11.1N 131.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 13.6N 92.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 02.10.2017 14.2N 93.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 261609