000 WTNT80 EGRR 251608 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 25.09.2017 HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 30.8N 49.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.09.2017 30.8N 49.5W WEAK 00UTC 26.09.2017 30.6N 50.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2017 30.5N 53.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2017 30.5N 55.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 27.09.2017 30.7N 57.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.09.2017 31.4N 57.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 28.09.2017 32.9N 57.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2017 35.5N 56.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2017 39.1N 52.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 30.09.2017 44.5N 45.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.09.2017 50.8N 35.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE MARIA ANALYSED POSITION : 30.8N 72.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.09.2017 30.8N 72.9W INTENSE 00UTC 26.09.2017 32.0N 72.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2017 33.2N 73.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2017 34.1N 74.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2017 34.7N 74.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.09.2017 35.0N 73.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2017 35.2N 72.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2017 35.6N 69.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2017 37.4N 64.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2017 42.3N 56.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 12UTC 30.09.2017 49.5N 45.7W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 01.10.2017 54.6N 38.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2017 POST-TROPICAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION PILAR ANALYSED POSITION : 22.7N 106.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.09.2017 22.7N 106.5W WEAK 00UTC 26.09.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 13.3N 124.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 26.09.2017 13.1N 124.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 27.09.2017 12.6N 123.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2017 12.5N 121.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2017 12.9N 120.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2017 13.5N 119.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2017 14.1N 117.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2017 13.9N 117.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2017 13.3N 116.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2017 12.6N 115.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2017 12.7N 114.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2017 13.6N 112.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 10.6N 135.3W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.09.2017 10.7N 134.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2017 11.4N 132.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2017 12.4N 131.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2017 13.0N 130.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2017 12.9N 129.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2017 12.3N 129.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2017 11.4N 128.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 01.10.2017 11.3N 128.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 12.8N 114.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.09.2017 12.8N 114.0W WEAK 12UTC 28.09.2017 12.9N 112.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2017 12.9N 110.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2017 12.5N 108.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 14.6N 93.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 01.10.2017 14.6N 93.1W WEAK THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 251608