000 WTNT80 EGRR 250406 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 25.09.2017 HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 31.1N 49.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.09.2017 31.1N 49.5W WEAK 12UTC 25.09.2017 30.8N 49.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.09.2017 30.7N 50.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2017 30.9N 52.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 27.09.2017 31.3N 53.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2017 31.9N 55.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2017 32.5N 56.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2017 33.9N 56.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 29.09.2017 36.1N 54.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 29.09.2017 38.7N 50.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2017 42.3N 44.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 30.09.2017 46.2N 35.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.10.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH HURRICANE MARIA ANALYSED POSITION : 29.7N 72.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL152017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.09.2017 29.7N 72.9W INTENSE 12UTC 25.09.2017 30.8N 73.1W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 26.09.2017 31.7N 73.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2017 33.0N 73.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2017 33.8N 73.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2017 34.4N 73.1W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 28.09.2017 34.5N 72.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2017 34.2N 72.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2017 33.9N 70.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2017 34.8N 67.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2017 38.6N 61.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2017 46.1N 52.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 01.10.2017 53.8N 43.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE TROPICAL STORM PILAR ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 106.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182017 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 25.09.2017 22.5N 106.5W WEAK 12UTC 25.09.2017 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 13.0N 126.1W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 25.09.2017 13.0N 126.1W WEAK 00UTC 26.09.2017 13.5N 124.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 26.09.2017 12.9N 123.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 27.09.2017 12.6N 122.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 27.09.2017 12.1N 120.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 28.09.2017 12.2N 119.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 28.09.2017 13.0N 118.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2017 13.6N 117.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2017 13.8N 116.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2017 13.5N 115.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2017 13.3N 114.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2017 13.6N 113.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 10.9N 134.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 28.09.2017 10.9N 134.0W WEAK 12UTC 28.09.2017 11.7N 132.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 29.09.2017 12.4N 131.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 29.09.2017 12.8N 130.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 30.09.2017 12.8N 129.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 30.09.2017 12.0N 129.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2017 11.4N 129.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 9.9N 156.7W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 30.09.2017 9.9N 156.7W WEAK 12UTC 30.09.2017 11.4N 155.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 01.10.2017 13.3N 155.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 250406